As the presidential campaign in the United States becomes increasingly heated, the narratives tend to focus more on emotions than concrete policy proposals. In a way, this echoes debates around the European elections; the themes that prevail for both the Republican Party and the European far right tend to fuel anti-immigrant sentiment and anti-LGBTQ+ narratives while focusing on white Christian nationalism.
With the European far right emboldened from the past election, a victory for Donald Trump in November could profoundly shake the foundations of the transatlantic relationship by orienting it towards transactional logics, compromising human rights and societal cohesion in favor of short-term political gains.
An Illiberal Vision
In the US and in Europe, politics are now dominated by identity issues. These kinds of politics have the effect of clouding the electorate’s judgement by overloading it with emotional rhetoric, which has the effect of mobilizing the extremes more than the moderates. In the US, the electoral campaign of Donald Trump has been filled with misogynistic and racist comments targeting Vice President Kamala Harris, while conspiracy theories regarding the 2020 election continue to elicit traction. At the Republican Convention, “white victimhood” narratives decrying diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives were plentiful. Similarly in Europe, far-right parties abandoned the goal of “leaving the EU” and now aim at remodeling Europe in their own image, advancing their idea of a “fortress Europe” that is impermeable to immigration and multiculturalism. Some of these parties have recently gathered in what is now the third largest political group in the European parliament—the “Patriots for Europe” (PfE). PfE was formed at the behest of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and is under the formal leadership of Jordan Bardella, from the French National Rally.
According to their vision, the EU should not have a say on issues such as democracy and rule of law, for which some member states maintain to have their own interpretation. This has already been visible for quite some time in Hungary, where, despite the European Commission’s warnings and infraction procedures, judiciary restrictions as well as the curtailing of rights for minorities, women, and the LGBTQ+ community have been accompanied by an aggressively ethno-nationalist discourse and an idea of the world that strongly critiques societal liberalism and fears multiculturalism. This, in some ways, echoes the discourse of some American conservatives who blame the government for suppressing conservative culture and advancing woke ideology; for example through diversity hiring practices in the federal government or through adding trans people as a protected legal category.
It is no coincidence that Gladden Pappin, an American “postliberal” conservative, has been chosen as president of the Hungarian Institute of Foreign Affairs (which is directly connected to the authority of the Hungarian Prime Minister), whose political vision strongly links Catholic values to the collective good and maintains that faith should have its place in determining a country’s political course. Similarly, Trump’s running mate JD Vance places a great deal of importance on cultural aspects and blames a decline in Christian morality for the economic condition of rural America, as he argues in his best-seller Hillbilly Elegy. He has repeatedly praised Viktor Orbán for his strong and authoritarian reaction to university students protesting against the Hungarian government’s reform that hampered the judicial system. Vance drew parallels with American universities, claiming that they too are dominated by left-wing intellectuals. He also advocates for taxpayers to have more say in their children’s education.
From Abortion to Gender Issues and Political Violence
Such a framework tends to have a major impact on the issue of abortion, which has been critically restricted on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, the Supreme Court reversed the constitutional protection of abortion by overturning Roe v. Wade and state legislatures have restricted access to in vitro fertilization. In Europe, beyond Hungary and Poland (under Fidesz and Law and Justice-led governments respectively), Italy’s governing coalition, led by the far-right Brothers of Italy, has enforced restrictive interpretations of the law protecting access to abortion, which is already jeopardized by the fact that many doctors refuse to adhere to it and perform abortions. It has also promoted a pro-life discourse that overshadows a woman’s right to choose in making medical decisions about her own body. Women’s and civil rights associations have denounced the activity of pro-life associations that protest in front of abortion clinics and also denounced practices that see nurses forcing patients to hear the fetus’ heartbeat before moving forward with the procedure. In light of these developments, it is no coincidence that in France, the government of President Macron successfully pushed for the right to abortion to be inscribed in the Constitution.
Despite real differences between the US and Europe, there is indeed a convergence between American and European far-right circles. These circles can reshape the discourse in the transatlantic space and have been built through more or less formal structures, like the National Prayer Breakfast. It is interesting to note the linguistic similarities in the Republican Party Platform and the European Conservative and Reformist statement page regarding a return to “common sense” and a fight against “gender ideology.”
This was particularly visible during the Olympics, where conservatives on both sides of the Atlantic— from JD Vance, to Italian MPs, all the way to Vladimir Putin—spread false information about Algerian boxer Imane Khelif, who was said to be a man competing against women based on previous testosterone level tests (whose methodology was never published). The rhetoric pushed forward once again was divisive and unleashed an incredible amount of hate against this woman and more broadly towards the LGBTQ+ community.
Even more dangerously, disinformation spread by transatlantic far-right circles can fuel civil unrest. The recent case of the UK race riots, where far-right groups attacked hotels hosting asylum seekers on false premises, are a case in point. In these troubled times, the CEO of X, Elon Musk, shared a completely fake headline, originally posted by the fringe party Britain First, stating that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer “considering building ’emergency detainment camps’ on the Falkland Islands.” Before its deletion within an hour, his tweet got almost two million views.
Such threats also raised concerns at the top level of EU institutions. Ahead of Elon Musk’s interview with Donald Trump, the Digital Affairs commissioner Thierry Breton warned Musk about the risk of hate speech and spreading of harmful content, reminding him of the regulatory framework in Europe, which Musk’s company has previously been fined for violating.
Potential Implications
Whether politicians that use this kind of narrative truly believe in it or whether they are just using it to fire up their base against a common enemy, the outcome is a divisive, often disinformed, set of arguments with the potential to incite intolerance and violence. This often translates into destroying rather than building solutions and curtailing people’s rights. While this could happen independently of the results of the US elections, a victory for the Trump-Vance ticket could accelerate the course of this trend and embolden such narratives and policies. Given the resonance of American politics in Europe and in the world, it is easily imaginable that restrictive and illiberal legislation could inspire similar actions across the Atlantic by likeminded parties in Europe. In the same way, the spread of disinformation and harmful content through American digital space, less regulated than the European one, can boost civil unrest and divisions in our societies.
Through this prism and with such political forces in power both in Europe and in the US, the transatlantic relationship will probably be defined in opposition to something rather than standing for its core values and interests. Multilateral initiatives protecting women’s rights and reproductive rights in the transatlantic space and beyond could be halted or severely reduced with long lasting consequences for a wide range of social groups across the globe.
Moreover, the fascination with power and authoritarianism, could easily backfire on both US and European societal stability and trust in institutions, which will make them more vulnerable to populism as well as hybrid threats from malign actors. Without a shared belief in freedom, open societies, protection of human and minority rights, the US and Europe will lose a fundamental feature of their bond and joint action. As countering authoritarianism has been the very reason of the foundation of the transatlantic relationship, the emboldening of the far right across the Atlantic will undeniably change this feature and fragilize its posture in the world.
Giovanna Di Maio is a nonresident fellow with the Illiberalism Studies Program at the George Washington University. She is based in Paris where she teaches European Foreign Policy at the Paris School of International Affairs. She holds a PhD from the University of Naples L’Orientale.
Image made by John Chrobak using “Donald Trump Laconia Rally, Laconia, NH 4 by Michael Vadon July 16 2015 26” by Michael Vadon licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.
