As Germany approaches the 2025 federal election, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) stands at a critical juncture. Having cemented itself as a viable competitor in German politics, particularly in the eastern states, the AfD’s trajectory in the upcoming election will be a key indicator of the country’s broader political and social currents. Here, I examine the AfD’s electoral prospects through the lens of its historical trajectory, evolving strategy, recent challenges, and broader implications for German democracy.
Political Evolution and Electoral Strategies
When the AfD was founded in 2013 it was a Eurosceptic party opposed to the Eurozone crisis bailouts. Since then, the party has undergone a significant ideological transformation. What began as an economically conservative movement has since shifted to an increasingly far-right ideological platform, capitalizing on public anxieties surrounding immigration, national identity, and dissatisfaction with the political establishment. In our book on the AfD,Political Entrepreneurship in the Age of Dealignment: The Populist Far-Right Alternative for Germany, my coauthor and I provide a comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding the AfD’s historical trajectory, along with an empirical analysis of the party’s development and campaign strategies.
What began as an economically conservative movement has since shifted to an increasingly far-right ideological platform.
The AfD’s historical development can be categorized into three distinct stages: its emergence (2013-2015), its breakthrough (2015-2017) and its sustainment (2017-present).
During the first period, the AfD emerged as a prominent critic of the Eurozone crisis management policies and the bailout packages for Greece and other struggling economies. The party’s economic nationalist stance resonated with conservative voters frustrated by Germany’s financial commitments to the EU. This anti-EU position emerged as the cornerstone of the AfD’s early platform. In the 2013 German Federal Election, the party contested a national election for the first time, narrowly missing the 5% threshold required for representation in the Bundestag (lower house of parliament), securing 4.7% of the vote. However, the 2014 European Parliament elections marked a first point of success, as the AfD successfully secured seven seats, establishing its presence at the European level.
During its breakthrough period, the AfD solidified its position as Germany’s leading right-wing populist force by broadening its platform beyond economic issues to focus on nationalist rhetoric, immigration skepticism, and opposition to Merkel’s government. The refugee crisis of 2015-2016, driven by the civil war in Syria and mass migration to Europe, provided it with a new rallying point. The party capitalized on public concerns about immigration by adopting a hardline anti-immigrant stance. The AfD performed strongly in state elections, particularly in Saxony and Thuringia, attracting voters who felt alienated by mainstream parties. In the 2017 German federal election, the AfD achieved a significant breakthrough by securing 12.6% of the vote and 94 seats in the Bundestag. This result marked the first time since World War II that a far-right party had entered the German federal parliament.
Positioning itself as the defender of individual freedoms and economic stability, the party attracted voters frustrated with the government’s coronavirus crisis management.
The period that brings us up to today is characterized by sustainment. Following its breakthrough in 2017, the AfD worked to sustain and expand its support base by capitalizing on emerging political and social issues. The party continued to perform strongly in eastern Germany, where economic and cultural anxieties remained high. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the AfD found renewed relevance by opposing government-imposed lockdown measures, vaccine mandates, and other public health restrictions. Positioning itself as the defender of individual freedoms and economic stability, the party attracted voters frustrated with the government’s coronavirus crisis management. The AfD framed pandemic-related policies as overreach by the state and a threat to personal liberties, further deepening its appeal among skeptical and anti-establishment voters. Despite facing internal divisions and increased scrutiny from the government and media, the AfD maintained a solid voter base, securing 10.3% of the vote in the 2021 German federal election. While this result represented a slight decline from its 2017 performance, the party retained a significant presence in the Bundestag and continued to influence public debates on immigration, national sovereignty, and economic policy.
Possible Futures and Present Support
This staged history prompts the following question: where does the AfD go from here? Three futures seem possible—a future of continued sustainment, a future of decline, and a future of ascendancy. The first entails the party maintaining its current supporter base and thus continuing as a significant minor party with limited prospects of entering government. The party might experience slight fluctuations in vote share or seats but remains a notable political entity.
The second possible future, of decline, would look very different. In the absence of a substantial political crisis to leverage, the AfD could experience a loss of supporters, relegating it to a more marginal position with diminished governmental influence and heightened vulnerability to competition. In this stage, the party would lose a significant amount of vote share or seats and be seen as a less formidable competitor in future elections. Consequently, it might experience a decline in support, including reduced contributions and volunteer engagement.
Finally, the third future could see the AfD achieving a significant enough level of electoral success to compel mainstream parties to consider its inclusion in a coalition government. While all major parties have publicly ruled out coalition partnerships with the AfD, a significant surge in its support might pressure them to reassess this stance in deference to democratic principles. Even if such inclusion were brief, it would signal to supporters that the party has a realistic chance of future governmental participation. The result could be an increase in support for the party, as it would be perceived as a normalized participant in the political process.
The party’s support is highest among middle-aged and older male voters, with lower levels of formal education and a preference for traditional values. Economic insecurity, dissatisfaction with democracy, and strong anti-immigrant attitudes are the primary predictors of AfD support.
While the future of the party cannot be foretold, we can describe in some detail the political present of the AfD. Its voter base is notably diverse but has some defining characteristics. Studies indicate that the party’s support is highest among middle-aged and older male voters, with lower levels of formal education and a preference for traditional values. Economic insecurity, dissatisfaction with democracy, and strong anti-immigrant attitudes are the primary predictors of AfD support.
One of the AfD’s key strengths lies in its regional appeal. In eastern Germany, the party has successfully positioned itself as a voice for those who feel neglected by mainstream politics. The “Tale of Two Electorates” framework highlights the distinct socio-political dynamics between eastern and western German AfD voters. While eastern supporters tend to be older and economically secure, their western counterparts are often younger and more economically precarious. In addition, in eastern Germany, the party has successfully positioned itself as a voice for those who feel neglected by mainstream politics.
The AfD has recently achieved significant electoral gains, particularly in the eastern states. In the 2024 Thuringian state election, it secured 32.8% of the vote, translating to 32 out of 88 seats in the state parliament. This marks the first instance since World War II where a far-right party has become the largest in any German state parliament, underscoring its ability to resonate with local grievances, especially in economically challenged areas. Similarly, in Brandenburg, the AfD garnered 29.2% of the vote, obtaining 30 out of 88 seats, narrowly trailing the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which received 30.9%. In Saxony, it achieved 31% of the vote, securing 38 out of 120 seats, closely following the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which led with 31.7%. These outcomes highlight the AfD’s escalating influence and entrenched presence in these regions. There is no reason to expect that these state-level successes will completely disappear during the 2025 federal election.
Current Challenges for the AfD
Today, the AfD faces key challenges on several fronts: first, from its radicalization and legal threats; second, from platform co-optation; and third, from party competition.
On the first point, the AfD’s increasingly extreme rhetoric has drawn scrutiny from the German government and civil society. Recent reports revealing the party’s alleged involvement in plans for mass deportations have led to public outcry and discussions about a potential constitutional ban. While a ban appears unlikely at the moment, one scandal or violent event involving supporters could trigger this type of reaction.
In terms of co-optation, the mainstream right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) alliance has increasingly adopted stricter stances on immigration and national security, issues traditionally dominated by the AfD. As part of this shift, CDU leader Friedrich Merz introduced a non-binding parliamentary motion to restrict immigration, which narrowly passed with AfD support. Former Chancellor Angela Merkel criticized the CDU for voting alongside the AfD, underscoring the party’s growing alignment with AfD positions on immigration. Merz has also vowed to implement tougher border controls and a stricter immigration policy if elected Chancellor. If a mainstream party with a realistic prospect of governing co-opts issues traditionally associated with the AfD, voters may perceive less incentive to support the minor party.
The mainstream right has increasingly adopted stricter stances on immigration and national security, issues traditionally dominated by the AfD.
Finally, the rise of the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) party poses a direct challenge to the AfD. Wagenknecht’s BSW represents a left-wing economic party that espouses some level of welfare chauvinism and a high level of anti-immigrant rhetoric. Research shows that the party has been effective in appealing to recent AfD supporters, particularly in eastern Germany, where individuals have generally held leftist economic attitudes. This shift indicates that BSW’s unique blend of leftist economic policies and conservative cultural stances resonates with voters who previously supported the AfD.
Conclusion
The 2025 federal election is poised to be a pivotal moment for the AfD. Current projections suggest that the party is likely to maintain its existing support base, continuing its role as a significant minor party without substantial governmental influence. The AfD’s ability to sustain this position will hinge on its strategic messaging, particularly its capacity to address public discontent without alienating its core supporters, who are drawn to its populist and nationalist rhetoric. Given the firm stance of mainstream parties against forming coalitions with the AfD, the party’s influence may remain limited to shaping policy debates and exerting pressure on other parties to adopt more conservative positions. Therefore, while the AfD is expected to retain its presence in the Bundestag, significant expansion of its political power appears unlikely in the near term.
Without a clear strategy to transition into the ascendancy stage and demonstrate its capacity to influence policy from within the government, the AfD faces the potential of diminishing relevance and possible obsolescence.
If the AfD remains in the sustainment stage—maintaining a stable yet limited support base without achieving governmental participation—the party risks conveying to its supporters that it lacks a realistic path to governance. Over successive election cycles, this perception could lead to disillusionment among its voter base, as prolonged exclusion from power may be interpreted as political impotence. Such a scenario has been observed in other political contexts, where smaller parties that fail to transition from opposition to governing roles experience a decline in support, eventually leading to their marginalization or dissolution. Therefore, without a clear strategy to transition into the ascendancy stage and demonstrate its capacity to influence policy from within the government, the AfD faces the potential of diminishing relevance and possible obsolescence in the German political landscape.
Michael A. Hansen is an Associate Professor of Political Science and Vice Head of the Department of Contemporary History, Philosophy, and Political Science at the University of Turku/Turin Yliopisto, Finland. He previously held a post-doctoral fellowship at Lund University/Lunds Universitet, Sweden, as well as various academic positions in the USA. His scholarly articles have appeared in numerous peer-reviewed journals such as Party Politics, Political Behavior, Electoral Studies, Social Science Quarterly, Political Research Quarterly, Comparative European Politics, German Politics, Politics and Gender, German Politics and Society, and American Politics Research.
Image made by Aaron Irion using “2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–039,” by Sandro Halank licensed under CC Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International; “20240417-Friedrich Merz 1845,” by Michael Lucan licensed under CC Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Germany; “Olaf Scholz signing Jacques Delors’ book of condolences, 2024,” by Lukasz Kobus / European Union, 2024 / EC – Audiovisual Service licensed under CC Attribution 4.0 International; “BDK Karlsruhe Nov 2023 Robert Habeck 1,” by Kasa Fue licensed under CC Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International; “2014-09-11 – Sahra Wagenknecht MdB – 8294,” by Sven Teschke licensed under CC Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Germany; “Reichstag building,” by Bernt Rostad licensed under CC BY 2.0 Attribution 2.0 Generic; “AfD-Wahlplakat zur BTW 2025 20250130 HOF2673 RAW-Export,” by PantheraLeo1359531 licensed under CC Attribution 4.0 International.
