Across the world, 2024 was a year of elections. In total, voters in more than 50 countries containing more than half of the world’s population went to the polls to elect new leaders at the local, regional, national, and supranational levels. This was especially apparent in Europe, where more than 185 million voters across the European Union’s 27 member states elected new members of the European Parliament. Furthermore, elections were held for the national legislature in 13 European countries, for the presidency in five, and for regional and local offices in even more.
Yet this exercise in democratic governance was not without its challenges. In particular, across much of Europe the far right continued its march toward political power—aided in large part by a global tide of anti-incumbent and anti-establishment sentiment. Amid other worrying global trends—including Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election and Vladimir Putin’s continued dominance in Russia—the European far right’s increasing success points ominously toward a continuation of the past decade’s worldwide democratic recession.
Far Right on the March
Heading into the June 2024 European Parliament elections, the far right anticipated significant gains—and it was not disappointed. As illustrated in Figure 1, the far-right parliamentary groups expanded their share of seats from 135 in 2019 (18 percent of the chamber) to 187 this year (26 percent of the total).
The election results also spurred a reconfiguration of the constellation of parliamentary groups. Most members of Identity & Democracy (ID) joined a new group, Patriots for Europe (PfE), while the Alternative for Germany (AfD)—which had been expelled from ID in the month preceding the election due to reported Nazi sympathies among its leadership—spearheaded the establishment of Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) alongside the French party Reconquête. There were also several notable intergroup changes: Spain’s Vox left European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) to join PfE; Czechia’s ANO departed Renew Europe (RE) for PfE; Bulgaria’s Revival joined ESN rather than following other former ID members into PfE. As expected, Hungary’s Fidesz abandoned its status as non-inscrits (held since its 2021 departure from the European People’s Party) and joined PfE.
Examining national results reveals that the far right’s gains were widespread and not concentrated in only a few countries. Overall, 40 distinct far-right parties from across the bloc won seats in the 2024 European Parliament elections, compared to only 25 parties in 2019. As shown in Figure 2, the far right increased its number of seats in 15 countries, while it lost seats in only five and in seven there was no change. Likewise, far-right parties increased their vote share in 20 countries, while they lost votes in only four countries. The far right’s surge also included expanding to several countries that had not sent far-right MEPs to Brussels in 2019—Cyprus, Luxembourg, Portugal, and Romania. Overall, far-right parties came in first place in six countries (compared to five in 2019), second place in five (one in 2019), and third place in five (four in 2019).
This surge in support for the far right was also mirrored in national elections across Europe. In nine of 13 states with national legislative elections, far-right parties increased their vote share compared to the last national election (see Figure 3). Far-right parties also improved their ranking relative to other parties in eight countries—including in Austria and Belgium, where the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) emerged as the largest parties.
The far right’s most notable success in national elections came in France, where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) almost doubled its share of the popular vote in the snap elections called by President Emmanuel Macron. The RN’s 142 seats represented its best result ever and gave the party unprecedented influence over the government formation process—the RN’s support was critical in Michel Barnier’s ascent to the premiership in September and the party was instrumental in toppling his government in early December. These results bode well for the party’s odds in the next French presidential election, which is slated for spring 2027 but could arrive sooner if Macron resigns amid the ongoing political crisis.
More muted but still significant gains came in the United Kingdom, where the Conservative Party’s crushing defeat at the hands of Labour in the July parliamentary elections overshadowed the surge of support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK (formerly the Brexit Party). Reform UK gained more than 14 percent of the vote—compared to approximately two percent in the last election in 2019; however, due to Britain’s use of first-past-the-post rules, the party earned a disproportionately low five seats in the House of Commons.
The year also saw breakout performances from two relatively new parties—Portugal’s Chega and Romania’s Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR)—both of which were founded in 2019 and previously participated in only one national election. Chega’s third-place finish with 18 percent of the vote shocked the establishment parties, which vowed to isolate the growing far-right faction in parliament. AUR’s 18 percent of the vote earned it a second-place finish and catalyzed an unprecedented effort among mainstream parties on right and left to form a “pro-EU” front to block the far right’s ascent to power.
Obstacles Remain to the Far Right’s Dominance
Despite the far right’s dramatic strides throughout 2024, obstacles remained in its path to power.
In advance of the European Parliament elections, both the Identity & Democracy and European Conservatives and Reformists groups hoped to be in a position to join a governing coalition with the dominant, center-right European People’s Party (EPP)—displacing the longstanding coalition between EPP and the center-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D). However, the far right was largely excluded from the post-election government formation process. Within the European Parliament, the presidency was retained by the EPP, given that it remains the largest party. In the appointment of the new European Commission, all of the top posts went to candidates from EPP, S&D, and RE; only one of the 27 commissioners came from the far right, ECR’s Raffaele Fitto from the Brothers of Italy, who was appointed Commissioner for Cohesion Policy, Regional Development, and Cities. Likewise, it is apparent that the forces of PfE, ECR, and ESN opposed Ursula von der Leyen of the EPP in her re-election as President of the European Commission in the late-July secret ballot—she received 401 votes, exactly the number of seats held by the EPP, S&D, and RE.
Likewise, despite the National Rally’s historic success in the French parliamentary elections, the party fell short of its goal of leading the government. In advance of the second round, RN appeared the odds-on favorite to emerge as the clear victor, with the party even designating Jordan Barella as its candidate for the prime ministership. Its ascent to power was staved off by strategic decisions made by opposition parties on the left and center, which formed “republican fronts” across many districts in the second round to prevent splitting the vote and handing power to the far right. As Le Pen said after the election: “the tide is rising…it did not rise high enough this time.”
The far right also came up short in the few races for the presidency across Europe. Of the three presidential elections held by mid-December, the far right won none. In Romania’s election, a far-right candidate placed first in the first round of the election, but the result was annulled by the country’s Constitutional Court, which cited Russian interference. Croatia’s presidential contest is scheduled for December 29 and no far-right candidate appears to be among the favorites.
Looking Ahead to 2025
After what was perhaps its most successful year on record, the far right is looking to secure and extend its momentum heading into 2025. Across Europe, the new year will bring at least half a dozen parliamentary elections and at least one high-profile presidential election.
Most importantly, the AfD appears likely to earn its best result yet when Germans head to the polls on February 23. According to current polling, the party is expected to place second with 18 percent of the vote, even outpacing the governing Social Democrats (who are currently projected at 15 percent). The Christian Democratic Union—the expected victor polling at 32 percent—has previously forsworn collaborating with AfD on the federal level, but the challenge of forming yet another “grand coalition” with the Social Democrats and Greens may lead to months of political uncertainty in the continent’s largest country.
One glimmer of hope may come from Poland, which will elect a new president in May. The Civic Coalition—which unseated the Law and Justice (PiS) government following the 2023 parliamentary elections—is currently leading in most polls. A victory in the presidential contest would provide a considerable boost to the multiparty coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose agenda has been effectively frozen by incumbent PiS President Andrzej Duda’s veto pen.
Yet, as 2024 comes to a close, the global battle against illiberal and anti-democratic forces appears no closer to an end than it did at the year’s start. An unprecedented number of voters cast ballots this year—by some measures more than 1.6 billion—yet voters by and large chose not to deliver a clear rebuke to the forces that threaten the foundation of liberal democracy. Instead, this year’s elections revealed a wave of dissatisfaction with the status quo, seeing most governing parties fall regardless of ideology. The far right was well-positioned to capitalize on these sentiments by leaning into its long-cultivated anti-establishment profile. Looking ahead, citizens and leaders working to preserve and improve democracy must discern the message of this year’s disappointing results and seek new ways to connect with voters and involve them in reversing democratic erosion around the globe.
Joseph Cerrone is a Postdoctoral Research Associate at George Washington University and an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Saint Joseph’s University. His research agenda is broadly focused on questions of democratic decline and renewal, with a specific focus on the rise of the far right, political discourse, anti-immigration politics, and electoral reform.
Image: “EE24 – Election night – Sunday 09 June” by European Parliament licensed under CC BY 2.0.
