Populist leaders frequently emerge in Latin America, but few manage to sustain public support beyond their initial term. Nayib Bukele, the President of El Salvador, has entered this elite group of the few, achieving a remarkable electoral victory on February 4. Bukele’s electoral success is unparalleled, securing 84.65% of the vote with 2.7 million votes, nearly double the 1.4 million he received in 2019. Additionally, his party, Nuevas Ideas, gained a legislative supermajority for the second time by obtaining 54 out of the 60 seats, and might win approximately 32 out of 44 municipal governments in the upcoming local elections on March 3.
What accounts for Bukele’s electoral hegemony in El Salvador? I suggest that Bukele’s success rests on three main pillars: enhancing his personal charisma with voters; extending that charisma to his party candidates in legislative and subnational elections, and undermining opposition competitiveness by limiting their ability to distribute favors to garner electoral support (clientelism) and attract voters based on specific programs. The consolidation of electoral hegemony will enable Bukele to further concentrate his own power, a process initiated in 2021 when his party obtained a supermajority for the first time.
Enhancing Bukele’s personal charisma with voters
Political scientist Caitlin Andrews-Lee explains that charismatic leaders demonstrate their charisma by first acknowledging their followers’ struggles, and then addressing them with bold actions. They also use symbols and rhetoric to paint a picture of societal change, of destroying “evil forces,” and of aiming to overcome obstacles to a prosperous future. Along these lines, Bukele strengthened his charisma with voters by taking bold actions in the handling of crime and the pandemic.
First, on June 20, 2019, Bukele unveiled the “Territorial Control Plan,” a government initiative aimed at curbing homicides. For years, gangs held considerable sway in the country, resulting in widespread violence including assassinations, extortion, and kidnappings. By 2018, the homicide rate was 53.31 per 100,000 inhabitants, one of the highest in the world. To fund this plan, Bukele sought approval for loans from the opposition-controlled legislature. However, the lack of a detailed plan made the opposition hesitant to grant these funds. The resulting dispute over resource allocation led to Bukele’s takeover of the legislature with the support of the army and police forces on February 9, 2020, a move that was widely condemned by the opposition and the international community. However, he still retained a popularity rating exceeding 60%.
Following a surge in crime in March 2022, Bukele declared a state of emergency, which was approved by his party which controlled the legislature after June 2021. On June 21, he announced the construction of the CECOT, a facility for the imprisonment of gang members. In the following months, the police forces detained around 70,000 individuals, equivalent to 2% of the Salvadoran adult population.
While the state of emergency has drawn criticism for its perceived abuses of power, wrongful incarcerations, and lack of constitutional guarantees for due process, it also led to what many Salvadorans perceived as a miraculous feat: the dismantling of gangs and a reduction in the homicide rate to 2.4 per 100,000 inhabitants by 2023. Undoubtedly, Bukele’s charismatic appeal has been strengthened as a result. A poll conducted in August 2023 revealed that 40% of respondents considered Bukele more important than their own religious beliefs.
While the state of emergency has drawn criticism for its perceived abuses of power, wrongful incarcerations, and lack of constitutional guarantees for due process, it also led to what many Salvadorans perceived as a miraculous feat: the dismantling of gangs and a reduction in the homicide rate…Undoubtedly, Bukele’s charismatic appeal has been strengthened as a result.
Second, Bukele enhanced his charismatic appeal by taking bold actions during the COVID-19 pandemic. In March 2020, he swiftly imposed a nationwide 21-day quarantine before any COVID cases were identified. The government established “containment centers” to house individuals who had recently traveled from abroad or violated curfew regulations. Additionally, on June 21, Bukele unveiled plans for a specialized hospital dedicated to treating COVID-19 cases. Finally, he also took steps to mitigate the economic impact of his policies, announcing a $300 subsidy for all Salvadorans, increasing the minimum wage by 20%, and initiating the distribution of food baskets nationwide. The implementation of these programs was not without controversy. The Bukele administration was accused of corruption in the distribution of cash subsidies, and the purchase and distribution of food packages. Despite criticisms, these initiatives garnered significant public support, with Bukele ending his second year in office with an approval rating of 86.5%.
Extending Bukele’s personal charisma to his party candidates
Bukele’s strategy entails creating a personalistic party in which candidates for the legislature rely on his brand to be elected. He launched his Nuevas Ideas party in 2017, and every aspect of this new movement was crafted to reflect Bukele’s persona. First, the movement’s logo, represented by an “N,” derives from Nayib’s initial. The logo also mirrors the emblem he employed in public projects during his first tenure as mayor in Nuevo Cuscatlán, a municipality adjacent to the capital.
Bukele’s strategy entails creating a personalistic party in which candidates for the legislature rely on his brand to be elected…every aspect of this new movement was crafted to reflect Bukele’s persona.
Second, the structure of the party reflects Bukele’s rejection of traditional party politics. When announcing the creation of the party, he promised that there would not be hierarchical organizations—members would be free to express their opinions without fear of punishment. Moreover, party members could participate in the election of party leaders through digital voting, marking a departure from the traditional methods employed by other parties. Finally, the party has consistently been under the direct control of the Bukele. The current leader, Xavier Zablah Bukele, is the President’s cousin. While several members come from traditional parties, there are no major independent political figures within the organization.
In the 2021 elections, Nuevas Ideas candidates campaigned under Bukele’s image. Their campaign message was “Vote for the N of Nayib.” Candidates for the legislature promised voters that they would guarantee “governability” to the president. Furthermore, candidates for mayor relied on Bukele’s achievements during the pandemic. A case in point was Mario Duran, the current mayor of San Salvador the capital city. His campaign fully relied on Bukele’s image. In his speeches, he mentioned Bukele’s name even more than his own, even his appearance bears a striking resemblance with Bukele (as can be observed at 0:05 of this video). Extending Bukele’s appeal to other candidates allowed his party to secure a supermajority in the legislature and a majority of local governments after 2021.
However, this strategy faced some challenges in 2024. Initially unknown in 2021, Nuevas Ideas legislators and mayors gained greater public exposure over time, leading to negative evaluations by voters, particularly at the municipal level. When surveys indicated that several mayors and legislators from the party might perform poorly in the upcoming elections, Bukele utilized his legislative supermajority to tilt the playing field in their, and his, favor. He reduced the number of deputies from 80 to 60 and municipalities from 262 to 44. Additionally, he introduced the “D’Hondt” electoral formula which favors large parties. As a result, in the 2024 election, Bukele once again secured a supermajority, and his party is poised to win a majority of local governments.
Reducing the opposition’s competitiveness
Bukele has also curtailed the opposition’s access to resources for distributing favors, key to garnering electoral support. He withheld public electoral funding earmarked for the 2021 and 2024 elections and most importantly, he withheld transfers to opposition-controlled local governments in 2020. Municipalities in El Salvador were entitled to receive 10% of the state revenues as part of the Fund for Social Development (FODES). Bukele refused to disburse FODES funds by citing the pandemic-induced resource shortages and alleging corruption within the opposition. Consequently, opposition mayors lacked the resources to sustain their party networks in the 2021 election.
The situation worsened for mayors in 2024. Following his supermajority victory in 2021, Bukele diminished the FODES from 10% to 1.5% of state revenues. Instead, he established the Direction of Public Works (DOM) to directly manage resources and execute public works in municipalities. Under this new arrangement, mayors can only request projects, but they have no control over funds nor the implementation. Faced with resource scarcity, mayors from the right-wing ARENA and left-wing FMLN parties opted to resign from their parties in an effort to obtain favor from the government. Bukele has also curtailed the opposition’s ability to attract voters based on specific programs. Prior to 2018, El Salvador operated under a party system dominated by two major parties rooted in the legacy of the civil war. On one side stood the ARENA party, characterized as right-wing, while on the other side was the FMLN party, labeled as leftist. Despite both parties holding power, they failed to deliver tangible results for Salvadorans.
Bukele took advantage of widespread discontent with the establishment, appealing to voters across the ideological spectrum. His communication style allowed individuals of varying political creeds to identify with his agenda.
Bukele took advantage of widespread discontent with the establishment, appealing to voters across the ideological spectrum. His communication style allowed individuals of varying political creeds to identify with his agenda. For instance, he often employs the phrase “los mismos de siempre” (“the same old faces”) to denounce the entrenched political elites in the country. To leftist voters, this refers to the business elites and the right-wing ARENA party, while to right-wing voters, it signifies the FMLN party and the former guerrillas.
Consequently, Bukele has cultivated the support of left-wing voters by limiting the influence of organized business sectors in El Salvador’s political landscape. In 2023, he enacted legislation to remove business associations from the boards of state institutions. Simultaneously, he has courted right-wing voters by championing a socially conservative agenda, fostering close ties with the MAGA movement in the US. He often employs religious rhetoric in public appearances.
Due to Bukele’s ideological adaptability, the traditional opposition parties struggle to attract voters around their old ideological platforms. The emerging opposition parties such as Nuestro Tiempo and Vamos are compelled to adopt broad “catch-all” approaches, positioning themselves primarily as adversaries to the Bukele government, thereby limiting their appeal to a small minority of the electorate.
Implications of Bukele’s electoral hegemony for democracy in El Salvador
Because Nuevas Ideas legislators rely entirely on Bukele to attain political office, they lack any incentives to oppose his ongoing efforts to consolidate power, which have been ongoing since 2021. Following their supermajority win in mid-2021, the legislature wholeheartedly supported Bukele in his removal of judges from the Sala de lo Constitucional (the Constitutional Court) and the dismissal of numerous lower-level judges from the judiciary. Additionally, the legislature played a significant role in appointing loyalists to key positions within the judiciary and the Attorney General’s office.
Moreover, the legislature has repeatedly approved the state of emergency, granting the executive branch unrestricted powers. It has not posed any opposition to Bukele’s major constitutional initiatives, such as the adoption of Bitcoin as the official currency or the reduction in the number of municipalities. The absence of checks and balances has also led to reduced transparency, as the government classifies information for “national security purposes.”
This lack of oversight has enabled the government to disregard fundamental human rights, detaining citizens under the state of emergency and endorsing Bukele’s reelection despite constitutional prohibitions. Without checks and balances, the Bukele government has had free rein to violate electoral rules, including inaugurating public works on the eve of elections, appointing loyalists to electoral bodies, and prematurely declaring electoral victories, conditioning the decisions of the Electoral Tribunal. The lack of autonomy of the Electoral Tribunal has led opposition leaders to question the fairness of the 2024 electoral process.
While Bukele currently enjoys widespread support, his vision of establishing a “one-party system within a fully democratic framework” appears destined for failure…and there is a risk that his government will resort to repressive measures to maintain its grip on power, echoing tactics seen in other Latin American nations like Nicaragua and Venezuela.
Looking ahead, while Bukele currently enjoys widespread support, his vision of establishing a “one-party system within a fully democratic framework” appears destined for failure. First, his ability to sustain his charismatic appeal may diminish as he grapples with increasingly complex challenges, notably the country’s worsening economic conditions. Second, even if he maintains widespread support, his loyalists in the legislature and local governments might increasingly become unpopular.
As the foundations of Bukele’s power weaken, there is a risk that his government will resort to repressive measures to maintain its grip on power, echoing tactics seen in other Latin American nations like Nicaragua and Venezuela. Sadly, if and when that happens, it may already be too late for Salvadorans to break free from this authoritarian path.
Jonatán Lemus is a PhD Candidate in the Government Department at the University of Texas at Austin. His research explores the relationship between populism, decentralization, and democratic backsliding in Latin America.
Photo by John Chrobak. Made using “Sello Corte Suprema de Justicia de El Salvador (2021)” by Jarould licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0; “Palacio Nacional El Salvador” by Leidymarielamolina licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.
